Achieving universal social protection for people with tuberculosis.

As we mark World TB Day 2024, we take this opportunity to reflect on the 2023 UN General Assembly High-Level Meeting (HLM) on the fight against tuberculosis-a milestone in the commitment towards a more coordinated, comprehensive approach to end tuberculosis globally. The UN HLM declaration on the fight against tuberculosis includes a specific pledge that all people with tuberculosis should receive a social benefits package to mitigate financial hardship. However, it is not known how this specific pledge will be realised and through which concrete actions. The use of the term financial hardship instead of WHO's key End TB Strategy indicator of catastrophic costs might prove challenging for robust evaluation of both the socioeconomic impact of tuberculosis and the effectiveness of socioeconomic support strategies to mitigate this impact. Moreover, in contrast to the financial pledges made for biomedical interventions, there was an absence of explicit investment in social protection. Such investments are imperative to facilitate successful expansion of social protection to meet the needs of people with tuberculosis and their households. Successful expansion of social protection is also dependent on political commitment and protected budgets from relevant stakeholders, including across government ministries. These strategies will help to ensure that the commitments on social protection made in the UN HLM declaration are turned into tangible actions with measurable effects.

Stigma, depression, quality of life, and the need for psychosocial support among people with tuberculosis in Indonesia: A multi-site cross-sectional study.

Stigma towards people with tuberculosis (TB-Stigma) is associated with other psychosocial consequences of TB including mental illness and reduced quality of life (QoL). We evaluated TB-Stigma, depression, QoL, and the need for psychosocial support among adults with TB in Indonesia, a high TB burden country. In this primary health facility-based survey in seven provinces of Indonesia, from February to November 2022, we interviewed adults receiving (a) intensive phase treatment for drug-susceptible (DS) TB at public facilities, (b) treatment at private facilities, (c) those lost to follow up (LTFU) to treatment, and (d) those receiving TB retreatment. We used our previously validated Indonesian TB-Stigma Scale, Patient Health Questionnaire-9, and EQ-5D-5L to measure TB-Stigma, depression, and QoL. Additional questions assessed what psychosocial support was received or needed by participants. We recruited and interviewed 612 people, of whom 60.6% (96%CI 59.6-64.5%) experienced moderate TB-Stigma. The average TB-Stigma scores were 19.0 (SD 6.9; min-max 0-50; Form A-Patient Perspective) and 23.4 (SD 8.4, min-max 0-50; Form B-Community Perspective). The scores were higher among people receiving treatment at private facilities (adjusted B [aB] 2.48; 0.94-4.03), those LTFU (aB 2.86; 0.85-4.87), males (aB 1.73; 0.59-2.87), those losing or changing job due to TB (aB 2.09; 0.31-3.88) and those living in a rural area (aB 1.41; 0.19-2.63). Depression was identified in 41.5% (95% CI 37.7-45.3%) of participants. Experiencing TB-Stigma was associated with moderately severe to severe depression (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.23; 1.15-1.32) and both stigma and depression were associated with lower QoL (aB -0.013; [-0.016]-[-0.010]). Informational (20.8%), emotional (25.9%) and instrumental (10.6%) support received from peers or peer-groups was limited, and unmet need for such support was high. There is a sizeable and intersecting burden of TB-Stigma and depression among adults with TB in Indonesia, which is associated with lower QoL. Participants reported a substantial unmet need for psychosocial support including peer-led mutual support groups. A community-based peer-led psychosocial support intervention is critical to defray the psychosocial impact of TB in Indonesia.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis control in Indonesia: a nationwide longitudinal analysis of programme data.

BACKGROUND: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis control in high-burden countries has not been adequately assessed. We aimed to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the national tuberculosis programme in Indonesia, in association with indicators of human development and health-system capacity across all 514 districts in 34 provinces. METHODS: We did a nationwide longitudinal analysis to compare tuberculosis case notification, treatment coverage, and mortality rates in Indonesia before (2016-19) and during (2020-21) the COVID-19 pandemic. The following outcomes were assessed: the district-level quarterly reported tuberculosis case notification rate (number of all reported tuberculosis cases per 100 000 population), treatment coverage (proportion of tuberculosis patients who started treatment), and all-cause mortality rate in patients with tuberculosis (number of reported deaths per 100 000 population). District-level data on COVID-19 incidence and deaths, health-system capacity, and human development and sociodemographics were also analysed. Multilevel linear spline regression was done to assess quarterly time trends for the three outcomes. FINDINGS: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the tuberculosis case notification rate declined by 26% (case notification rate ratio 0·74, 95% CI 0·72-0·77) and treatment coverage declined by 11% (treatment coverage ratio 0·89, 95% CI 0·88-0·90), but there was no significant increase in all-cause mortality (all-cause mortality rate ratio 0·97, 95% CI 0·91-1·04) compared with the pre-pandemic period. In the second year of the pandemic, we observed a partial recovery of the case notification rate from Q1 to Q4 of 2021, a persistent decrease in treatment coverage, and a decrease in the all-cause mortality rate from Q2 of 2020 to Q4 of 2021. The multivariable analysis showed that the reduction in the tuberculosis case notification rate was associated with a higher COVID-19 incidence rate (adjusted odds ratio 3·1, 95% CI 1·1-8·6, for the highest compared with the lowest group) and fewer GeneXpert machines for tuberculosis diagnosis (3·1, 1·0-9·4, for the lowest compared with the highest group) per 100 000 population. The reduction in tuberculosis treatment coverage was associated with higher COVID-19 incidence (adjusted odds ratio 11·7, 95% CI 1·5-93·4, for the highest compared with the lowest group), fewer primary health centres (10·6, 4·1-28·0, for the lowest compared with the middle-high group), and a very low number of doctors (0·3, 0·1-0·9, for the low-middle compared with the lowest group) per 100 000 population. No factors were shown to be significantly associated with all-cause mortality. INTERPRETATION: The COVID-19 pandemic adversely and unevenly affected the national tuberculosis programme across Indonesia, with the greatest impacts observed in districts with the lowest health-system capacity. These disruptions could lead to an escalation in tuberculosis transmission in the coming years, warranting the need for intensified efforts to control tuberculosis and strengthen local health systems. FUNDING: Wellcome Africa Asia Programme Vietnam. TRANSLATION: For the Bahasa translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Closing the Evidence Gap of Cash Transfer for Tuberculosis-Affected Households Comment on "Does Direct Benefit Transfer Improve Outcomes Among People With Tuberculosis? - A Mixed-Methods Study on the Need for a Review of the Cash Transfer Policy in India".

Achieving the targets of eliminating tuberculosis (TB) requires a combination of biomedical, epidemiological, and social approaches. Having hitted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic which diminishes the financial capacity of TB-affected households, the importance of delivering socioeconomic support to TB-affected household emerges. However, the evidence of TB-related socioeconomic support is still scarce, and some questions are left unanswered. A sequential explanatory mixed-methods study by Dave and Rupani shows that the direct benefit transfer (DBT), a form of cash transfer, to TB-affected households improves TB treatment outcomes in India despite the challenges. Some critical issues remain to be discussed: trading-off between the amount of cash and its sustainability, choosing the most appropriate support packages, detecting, and reaching the target population, and arranging the most effective delivery strategy. Knowledge gap remains to be answered, and a global research agenda and political commitment are critical to encourage more evidence in delivering socioeconomic support for TB control.

Stigma towards people with tuberculosis: a cross-cultural adaptation and validation of a scale in Indonesia.

INTRODUCTION: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a highly stigmatised disease that can cause or exacerbate mental health disorders. Despite increased awareness of the importance of reducing TB stigma, validated tools to measure TB stigma remain scarce. This study aimed to culturally adapt and validate the Van Rie TB Stigma Scale in Indonesia, a country with the second largest TB incidence worldwide. METHODS: We validated the scale in three phases: translation, cultural adaptation, and psychometric evaluation. We invited diverse experts to an interdisciplinary panel for the cross-cultural adaptation, then performed a psychometric evaluation of the scale: exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses, reliability analysis, and correlation analysis with Patient Health Questionnaire 9 [PHQ-9]. RESULTS: We culturally adapted the original scale's language and content during the translation and cultural adaptation phases. After psychometric evaluation with 401 participants in seven provinces of Indonesia, we removed two items. The new scale had two forms: (A) patient and (B) community perspective forms. Both forms had good internal consistency, with respective Cronbach's alpha values of 0.738 and 0.807. We identified three loading factors in Form A (disclosure, isolation, and guilty) and two loading factors in Form B (isolation and distancing). The scale showed correlation with PHQ-9 (Form A, rs = 0.347, p < 0.001; Form B, rs = 0). CONCLUSIONS: The culturally adapted Indonesian version of Van Rie's TB Stigma Scale is comprehensive, reliable, internally consistent, and valid. The scale is now ready for applied scale-up in research and practice to measure TB-stigma and evaluate the impact of TB-stigma reduction interventions in Indonesia.

Comparison of Culture Results between Specimens from Corneal Scraping with Microhomogenization and Corneal Swab in Moderate and Severe Bacterial Corneal Ulcers.

The purpose of this study was to compare the bacterial culture results from corneal infiltrate specimens collected using two different methods, corneal scraping followed by microhomogenization and corneal swab. This is a comparative crosssectional study, with 18 participants undergoing corneal specimen collection using each of the 2 sampling techniques. The results from the scraping and swab methods were separated and then compared using data analysis. The proportion of Gram stain results that matched the culture results for the scraping-microhomogenization technique was 6/13 (46.2%), and the proportion of Gram stain results that matched the culture results for the swab technique was 5/13 (38.5%) (McNemar test P value, 1.000; P > 0.05). The proportion of positive cultures obtained using the scraping-microhomogenization technique was 13/18 (72.2%), and the proportion of positive cultures obtained using the swab technique was 9/18 (50%) (McNemar test P value, 0.219; P > 0.05). The Kappa suitability test value for comparison of the scraping-microhomogenization technique to the corneal swab was 0.333. The specimens collected by corneal scraping followed by microhomogenization had a higher positive bacterial culture rate than those collected by corneal swab, but the results were not statistically significant. IMPORTANCE This study aimed to compare the culture results between scraping specimens with microhomogenization and corneal smears in patients with moderate to severe bacterial corneal ulcers. This study could be a guideline for treating bacterial corneal ulcers.

The development of the national tuberculosis research priority in Indonesia: A comprehensive mixed-method approach.

Ranked second in global tuberculosis (TB) incidence, Indonesia has developed a National Strategy for TB Prevention and Control 2020-2024 to accelerate the TB elimination program. Research and innovation are key pillars to support the program and need to be prioritised. This study aimed to develop updated national TB research priorities in Indonesia. This study was a mixed-methods study consisting of an open survey, a published literature survey, and Delphi survey. The open survey invited all related TB stakeholders to answer (a) the main barriers of the TB program and (b) the need for studies to support TB elimination. The published literature survey retrieved scientific articles published in national and international journals between 2015 and 2020 to identify gaps between published research and the current national strategy for TB control. The online survey and literature survey informed a panel of TB experts in a two-phase Delphi Survey to select the top 10 priority research topics. We identified 322 articles and analysed 1143 open survey responses. Through two-phases Delphi surveys, top ten research categories were listed: early TB detection; diagnosis and treatment of DR-TB; contact investigation; case detection and treatment of child TB; TB preventive therapy; government policy; laboratory for drug-sensitive- and drug-resistant-TB diagnosis; treatment adherence; diagnostic tool development; and community empowerment. This study also found the gap between stakeholders' interests and the importance of translating research into policy and practice. TB research priorities have been identified through the involvement of various stakeholders. The combination of an online survey, a published literature survey, and a Delphi survey was a rigorous methodology and was fit to build a systematic consensus about the priority of TB research.

Developing a tool to measure tuberculosis-related stigma in workplaces in Indonesia: An internal validation study.

Workers with tuberculosis (TB) are often stigmatized, negatively impacting their socioeconomic position, mental health, and TB treatment outcomes. There is a dearth of validated tools to assess stigma in the worker population. This study aimed to develop and validate a novel, culturally adapted tool to measure TB-related stigma among workers in Indonesia. We translated, adapted, applied, and internally validated Van Rie's TB-Stigma Scale to the worker population in varying sizes businesses (formal and informal business sectors) in Indonesia. Psychometric evaluation using exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses (EFA and CFA) was performed to check the tool's internal consistency and reliability. The translation and cultural adaptation phases resulted in a final 11-item tool. From 172 participant responses, the EFA found two loading factors relating to responses on isolation and exclusion from the workplace. The CFA confirmed that the developed model had moderate fit with R2 values for each item ranging from 0.37 to 0.84. The tool was reliable (Cronbach's alpha 0.869). This validated, consistent and reliable adapted tool is ready to use in larger scale evaluations of TB-related stigma amongst workers in formal and informal business sectors of Indonesia to develop strategies to eliminate TB-related stigma from the workplace.

Delayed detection of leprosy cases: A systematic review of healthcare-related factors.

BACKGROUND: In new leprosy cases, grade 2 disability (G2D) is still a public health burden worldwide. It is often associated with the delayed leprosy diagnoses that healthcare systems should play a crucial role in preventing. The aim of this systematic review was to identify healthcare factors related to delays in case detection in leprosy. METHODS: PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis) was used as a guideline in this research. The study protocol was registered in the PROSPERO (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews) with reference code CRD42020189274. Data was collected from five electronic databases: Embase, Medline All Ovid, Web of Science, Cochrane CENTRAL, and the WHO Global Health Library. RESULTS: After applying the selection criteria for original empirical studies, and after removing duplicates, we included 20 papers from 4313 records. They had been conducted in ten countries and published between January 1, 2000, and January 31, 2021. We identified three categories of healthcare factors related to delayed case. 1) Structural factors, such as i) financial and logistic issues, and geographical circumstances (which we classified as barriers); ii) Health service organization and management including the level of decentralization (classified as facilitators). 2) Health service factors, such as problems or shortages involving referral centers, healthcare personnel, and case-detection methods. 3) Intermediate factors, such as misdiagnosis, higher numbers of consultations before diagnosis, and inappropriate healthcare services visited by people with leprosy. CONCLUSIONS: Delays in leprosy case detection are due mainly to misdiagnosis. It is crucial to improve the training and capacity of healthcare staff. To avoid misdiagnosis and reduce detection delays, national leprosy control programs should ensure the sustainability of leprosy control within integrated health services.

Interventions pathways to reduce tuberculosis-related stigma: a literature review and conceptual framework.

BACKGROUND: Prevention of tuberculosis (TB)-related stigma is vital to achieving the World Health Organisation's End TB Strategy target of eliminating TB. However, the process and impact evaluation of interventions to reduce TB-stigma are limited. This literature review aimed to examine the quality, design, implementation challenges, and successes of TB-stigma intervention studies and create a novel conceptual framework of pathways to TB-stigma reduction. METHOD: We searched relevant articles recorded in four scientific databases from 1999 to 2022, using pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria, supplemented by the snowball method and complementary grey literature searches. We assessed the quality of studies using the Crowe Critical Appraisal Tool, then reviewed study characteristics, data on stigma measurement tools used, and interventions implemented, and designed a conceptual framework to illustrate the pathways to TB-stigma reduction in the interventions identified. RESULTS: Of 14,259 articles identified, eleven met inclusion criteria, of which three were high quality. TB-stigma reduction interventions consisted mainly of education and psychosocial support targeted predominantly toward three key populations: people with TB, healthcare workers, and the public. No psychosocial interventions for people with TB set TB-stigma reduction as their primary or co-primary aim. Eight studies on healthcare workers and the public reported a decrease in TB-stigma attributed to the interventions. Despite the benefits, the interventions were limited by a dearth of validated stigma measurement tools. Three of eight studies with quantitative stigma measurement questionnaires had not been previously validated among people with TB. No qualitative studies used previously validated methods or tools to qualitatively evaluate stigma. On the basis of these findings, we generated a conceptual framework that mapped the population targeted, interventions delivered, and their potential effects on reducing TB-stigma towards and experienced by people with TB and healthcare workers involved in TB care. CONCLUSIONS: Interpretation of the limited evidence on interventions to reduce TB-stigma is hampered by the heterogeneity of stigma measurement tools, intervention design, and outcome measures. Our novel conceptual framework will support mapping of the pathways to impacts of TB-stigma reduction interventions.

B Vitamins, work-related stress and emotional mental disorders: a cross-sectional study among nurses in Indonesia.

AIM: The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between intake of vitamins B1, B6, B9 and B12 with emotional mental disorders among nurses in Indonesia. DESIGN: This cross-sectional study included nurses who have worked at least six months at a private hospital in Indonesia from March to April 2021. METHODS: We used the Food Frequency Questionnaire, Self-Reporting Questionnaire 20 and the Expanded Nursing Stress Scale questionnaire to assess the B-vitamin intake, emotional mental disorders and work-related stress. RESULTS: Of 80 interviewed nurses, 8.8% experienced severe work-related stress, and 22.5% had emotional mental disorders. Most nurses had inadequate intake of vitamins B1 and B9 but had adequate intake of vitamins B6 (72.5%) and B12 (56.3%). Emotional mental disorders are more probably to occur in nurses with less intake of vitamins B6 and B12, with respective aOR of 20.06, 95% CI 4.14-97.09 (p < .001) and 4.49, 95% CI 1.19-16.83 (p = .026).

Transferability of a EUnetHTA relative effectiveness assessment to low- and middle-income countries setting.

In 2020, European Network for Health Technology Assessment (EUnetHTA) published a relative effectiveness analysis (REA) of Pretomanid in combination with Bedaquiline and Linezolid for the treatment of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) or treatment-intolerant or nonresponsive multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) (REA PTJA14). This REA may have a significant value for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) outside Europe, particularly those with a high burden of drug-resistant TB. This commentary focuses on whether the REA PTJA14 can be transferred and to what extent a REA can be translated to LMICs context outside Europe. We found that the assessments on the clinical effectiveness and risks of bias reported in REA PTJA14 are useful for LMICs outside Europe. The highly standardized management of TB will support the applicability of the REA to LMICs outside of Europe. Transferring this REA can reduce workload and efficiently use limited resources to conduct health technology assessment (HTA). However, the transfer should consider several critical issues, including variations in health system delivery and clinical practice and setting-specific constraints. In the TB context, the differences in the current standard treatment for XDR or nonresponsive MDR TB, resources availability for drug-resistant TB management, and how healthcare is delivered in the countries can complicate the applicability of the REA PTJA14. Given that LMICs have limitations in doing HTA, it is now critical to develop standard guidelines for transferring REA or other HTA results from high-income countries or other LMICs to maximize the benefits of the REA for LMICs outside Europe.

Efficacy and safety of S-flurbiprofen plaster in knee osteoarthritis patients: A 2-week randomized controlled Phase III clinical trial compared to diclofenac gel.

AIM: S-flurbiprofen plaster (SFPP) is a novel topical nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) patch. This study aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of SFPP in knee osteoarthritis (OA) patients compared to diclofenac gel. METHODS: This study was a multicenter, randomized, active-controlled, open-label, non-inferiority phase III trial. There were 311 enrolled patients treated by SFPP or diclofenac gel for 2 weeks. The primary efficacy outcome was the knee pain when rising from the specially arranged chair assessed by visual analog scale (rVAS). The other efficacy outcomes were clinical symptoms, pain on walking, global assessment by both investigator and patient, and use/non-use of the rescue drugs during the treatment period. Adverse events (AEs) were evaluated as the safety outcome. RESULTS: The least-squares mean (95% CI) of ΔrVAS at the end of the study was 41.52 (39.16-43.88) mm in the SFPP group and 36.01 (33.69-38.33) mm in the diclofenac gel group, with a between-group difference of 5.51 (2.20-8.82), indicating non-inferiority. There were statistically significant differences between the groups in rVAS, clinical symptoms, pain on walking, and the global assessment by both investigator and patient. The incidence rate of AEs in the SFPP group was 5.8%, and there was no statistically significant difference from that in the diclofenac gel group (5.2%). Most of the AEs were mild, and no AE led to discontinuation. CONCLUSION: Non-inferiority of SFPP to diclofenac gel was demonstrated in the efficacy for pain on rising from a chair. SFPP was also well-tolerated in knee OA patients.

Characterising and Addressing the Psychosocial Impact of Tuberculosis in Indonesia (CAPITA): A study protocol.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB)-related stigma remains a key barrier for people with TB to access and engage with TB services and can contribute to the development of mental illnesses. This study aims to characterise stigmatisation towards people with TB and its psychosocial impact in Indonesia. Methods: This study will apply a sequential mixed method in two main settings: TB services-based population (setting 1) and workplace-based population (setting 2). In setting 1, we will interview 770 adults with TB who undergo sensitive-drug TB treatment in seven provinces of Indonesia. The interview will use the validated TB Stigma Scale questionnaire, Patient Health Questionnaire-9, and EQ-5D-5L to assess stigma, mental illness, and quality of life. In Setting 2, we will deploy an online questionnaire to 640 adult employees in 12 public and private companies. The quantitative data will be followed by in-depth interview to TB-related stakeholders. Results: CAPITA will not only characterise the enacted stigma which are directly experienced by people with TB, but also self-stigma felt by people with TB, secondary stigma faced by their family members, and structural stigma related to the law and policy. The qualitative analyses will strengthen the quantitative findings to formulate the potential policy direction for zero TB stigma in health service facilities and workplaces. Involving all stakeholders, i.e., people with TB, healthcare workers, National Tuberculosis Program officers, The Ministry of Health Workforce, company managers, and employees, will enhance the policy formulation. The validated tool to measure TB-related stigma will also be promoted for scaling up to be implemented at the national level. Conclusions: To improve patient-centered TB control strategy policy, it is essential to characterise and address TB-related stigma and mental illness and explore the needs for psychosocial support for an effective intervention to mitigate the psychosocial impact of TB.

Individual and community factors determining delayed leprosy case detection: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The number of new leprosy cases is declining globally, but the disability caused by leprosy remains an important disease burden. The chance of disability is increased by delayed case detection. This review focusses on the individual and community determinants of delayed leprosy case detection. METHODS: This study was conducted according to the PRISMA guidelines (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis). The study protocol is registered in PROSPERO (code: CRD42020189274). To identify determinants of delayed detection, data was collected from five electronic databases: Embase.com, Medline All Ovid, Web of Science, Cochrane CENTRAL, and the WHO Global Health Library. RESULTS: We included 27 papers from 4315 records assessed. They originated in twelve countries, had been published between January 1, 2000, and January 31, 2021, and described the factors related to delayed leprosy case detection, the duration of the delayed case, and the percentage of Grade 2 Disability (G2D). The median delay in detection ranged from 12 to 36 months, the mean delay ranged from 11.5 to 64.1 months, and the percentage of G2D ranged from 5.6 to 43.2%. Health-service-seeking behavior was the most common factor associated with delayed detection. The most common individual factors were older age, being male, having a lower disease-symptom perception, having multibacillary leprosy, and lack of knowledge. The most common socioeconomic factors were living in a rural area, performing agricultural labor, and being unemployed. Stigma was the most common social and community factor. CONCLUSIONS: Delayed leprosy case detection is clearly correlated with increased disability and should therefore be a priority of leprosy programs. Interventions should focus on determinants of delayed case detection such as health-service-seeking behavior, and should consider relevant individual, socioeconomic, and community factors, including stigmatization. Further study is required of the health service-related factors contributing to delay.

Targeted Vaccine Allocation Could Increase the COVID-19 Vaccine Benefits Amidst Its Lack of Availability: A Mathematical Modeling Study in Indonesia.

With a limited number of vaccines and healthcare capacity shortages, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, vaccination programs should seek the most efficient strategy to reduce the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemics. This study aims at assessing several scenarios of delivering the vaccine to people in Indonesia. We develop a model for several scenarios of delivering vaccines: without vaccination, fair distribution, and targeted distribution to five and eight districts with the highest COVID-19 incidence in West Java, one of the most COVID-19-affected regions in Indonesia. We calculate the needs of vaccines and healthcare staff for the program, then simulate the model for the initial 4-month and one-year scenarios. A one-year vaccination program would require 232,000 inoculations per day by 4833 vaccinators. Targeted vaccine allocation based on the burden of COVID-19 cases could benefit the COVID-19 vaccination program by lowering at least 5000 active cases. The benefits would increase by improving the number of vaccines and healthcare staff. Amidst lacking available vaccines, targeted vaccine allocation based on the burden of COVID-19 cases could increase the benefit of the COVID-19 vaccination program but still requires progressive efforts to improve healthcare capacity and vaccine availability for optimal protection for people.